Chapter Meeting – March 2024: Monte Carlo Simulation Demystified

(VIRTUAL MEETING) Monte Carlo Simulation Demystified 

Agenda

5:30 - 6:00 PM  Chapter Rolling Slides / Join the meeting

6:00 – 6:15 PM  Chapter Announcements

6:15 - 7:00 PM Monte Carlo Simulation Demystified

7:00 – 7:15 PM  Questions

Abstract:

Join us for this presentation by Bill Flanagan, MBA, PE, PMI-RMP, PMP in which he will explain the  huge benefits you will achieve in using a Monte Carlo Simulation to analyze your project risk.  We’ll cover the following:

• Basics of what a Monte Carlo Simulation is and how it is setup on a project.
• Demonstration of how the integrated schedule-cost risk of a project compares to the deterministic values of cost and schedule. Once seeing this you will probably never go back to developing a schedule and cost estimate with purely deterministic values again.
• Demonstration of how the Sensitivity (Tornado) Analysis, calculated with a Monte Carlo, shows us which activities in the schedule have the largest potential impact on our schedule and cost. This allows us to focus on the biggest bang for the buck.
• Demonstration of how a Monte Carlo shows us which non-critical activities are likely to become critical as we proceed through the schedule. This understanding is critical to staying on schedule.

Presentation Objectives

• Demonstrate a Monte Carlo Analysis of a resource loaded Critical Path Method Schedule.
• Demonstrate how a Tornado Analysis Identifies the schedule activities that impact total cost and schedule duration the most.
• Demonstrate how the Monte Carlo can predict which non-critical path activities are likely to become critical.

 

Presenter: Bill Flanagan

Bill Flanagan has been a member of NCPMI for twenty-five years. Many of you probably know him as an NCPMI PMP Exam Prep Instructor. He began his career with the United States Navy where he served as a Nuclear Submarine Engineering Officer. This was followed by twenty-six years with Progress Energy providing leadership in both line of business management positions and major nuclear plant upgrade and improvement projects. Since retiring from Progress Energy in 2005, Bill has worked with Black Diamond Services, Inc as a Senior Project Management Consultant gathering lessons learned on project successes and failure around the world. Today Bill is a Senior Instructor for Knowledge Source Inc where he teaches PMP Examination Prep Classes, PMI-RMP Examination Prep Classes and Risk Management Workshops. He is a past Vice-president Education for the North Carolina Chapter of the Project Management Institute. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering and a Master of Science in Management from North Carolina State University. He is a Registered Professional Engineer in the State of North Carolina and holds a Project Management Professional and a Risk Management Professional Certification with the Project Management Institute.